How Will the Minnesota Twins Replace Sonny Gray
With their eyes towards 2024, the Minnesota Twins front office are charged with the task of replacing ace Sonny Gray in their rotation.
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – AUGUST 25: Sonny Gray #54 of the Minnesota Twins delivers a pitch against the Texas Rangers in the first inning at Target Field on August 25, 2023 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Twins defeated the Rangers 12-2. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)
The Minnesota Twins had an excellent 2023 season. The Twins were able to win the AL Central as well as advance to the Divisional round of the playoffs on the backs of their excellent rotation. Leading that rotation was AL Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray.
The Minnesota Twins rotation finished with the second-best ERA in all of baseball last season. This was in large part thanks to the efforts of Gray, Pablo Lopez, and Bailey Ober. With an offense that left a lot to be desired, the Twins needed the pitching to step up and it did.
But Gray declined the qualifying offer that was extended by the Twins this offseason. With Gray now officially a free agent, the Twins have some decisions to make.
How do they go about replacing Sonny Gray?
Do Nothing
This is the most simple option to replace Sonny Gray. The Twins could simply do nothing to boost the rotation and spend on offensive help instead.
If this is the route that the Twins decide to go, they will still have a solid rotation. A rotation of Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, Bailey Ober, and Louie Varland has the potential to become a top 10 rotation in baseball. While there is nothing flashy about it, they are solid from top to bottom.
I think that there is a slim chance of this happening for a couple of reasons. The first being that Louie Varland may be more valuable as a bullpen piece. Varland has shown that he can be a serviceable starter with a 4.82 ERA in 82 major league innings. With that said, Varland showed flashes of a shutdown reliever last year. He only threw 12 innings but posted a 1.50 ERA and struck out 17.
Another reason is that while the rotation would be strong, it would be incredibly thin. The Twins would be working with players such as Simeon Woods-Richardson, Brent Headrick, Randy Dobnak and others. That is less than ideal when it comes to rotational depth.
Ultimately doing nothing is a horrible option. The only bright side would be the retention of the compensatory draft pick they will receive when Gray signs elsewhere.
Re-Sign Kenta Maeda
Personally, I am a big fan of this move. Maeda is going to be a relatively inexpensive depth add. Spotrac has Maeda listed with a market value of $11.5M. Players with a similar market value include the likes of Jack Flaherty, Zack Greinke, and Lucas Giolito.
Of that group, I would rather have Maeda on a short-term deal.
Maeda is 35 years old and will turn 36 next season. However, he showed last season that he still has some juice in the tank. He was returning from an injury and struggled a bit early last season but finished strong. In the second half of the season Maeda threw to a 3.79 ERA in 71 innings.
His best days are behind him but Maeda would provide depth and be a solid option to be the number five starter for the Twins. Bringing back Maeda as well as making other supplemental moves could shore up this rotation to make another post season push.
Target Free Agents
There have been reports that the Twins front office is not looking to increase the payroll this year. Who knows just how true these reports are, but still it looks unlikely that the Twins hand out a massive contract this offseason.
Three potential free agent signings that make sense for the Twins are Marcus Stroman, Michael Wacha, and Wade Miley.
Stroman would be the closest thing to a big signing. He is coming off back-to-back solid seasons in Chicago and would form a formidable grouping with Lopez and Ryan at the top of the Twins rotation. I could see a three-year deal for somewhere around $50 million, potentially an opt out and/or an extra year.
